Sports Gambling – Ahead of Tomorrow the New Paradigm - ERP Spain.com - España y América Latina

In 1992 Congress in its infinite wisdom passed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. More importantly, the Supreme Court negated that legislation in 2018 and made it legal for states to authorize sports gambling. Since that time, teams and leagues have sports book as sponsors. Soccer (European football) has more fans than any other sport. However, it is unique in its wagering characteristics. With an outcome of win, lose or draw the statistics can be more than challenging. We (at Action Sports) have developed an aggressive approach to model soccer including:  Generate a discrete density function(s), derived from the mean and variance of goals scored,  Optimize the data look-back period to enhance predictability and minimize noise,  Incorporated Monté Carlo simulation and Logistic Regression to calculate an a priori probability of winning,  Integrated Bayesian statistics to extrapolate an a posterioria probability of winning. Results were “off the charts”. Palisade tool utilized included and not limited to:  @ Risk o Distribution fitting o Monté Carlo simulation  Stat Tools o Logistic regression o Multiple regression  Evolver o Filter to optimization  Alternative maximization  Profits  Return on investment o Variable change, profit as a constraint rather than the objective function